What is happening in Europe and Asia in June 2025?

June 2025 was a lively and consequential month in European and Asian politics, marked particularly by airstrikes between Israel and Iran and the United States’ bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Although June ends with a frail ceasefire between the two countries, we will continue to monitor fast-paced developments in the region. 

Similarly, we note the political crises in Thailand and the Netherlands, both of which involve major parties withdrawing from the governing coalitions, and the election of new presidents in South Korea and Poland. The Editorial Office observes the various implications these events will have on the respective countries’ political climates amidst rising authoritarianism and global economic challenges. We also monitor the commitment of NATO member governments to increase defence spending at a summit this month in The Hague. 

Overall, June’s developments highlight a growing trend in Europe as its key leaders have both acclimated to Trump’s long-standing defence strategy and recognised the need for a more muscular Europe as the U.S. becomes a less reliable partner on the world stage. Developments in the Middle East this month only consolidate the sense that West Asia is being reshaped by Israel’s bold and interventionist strategy since the onset of the Gaza war, and critics suggest that this approach puts the region at risk of further instability. In the coming months, the Editorial Office will continue to analyse these two pivotal trends and their implications for Europe-Asia relations. 

Europe:

Dutch government collapses after PVV withdraws its support.

[BD] The leader of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), Geert Wilders, announced the withdrawal of his party from the governing coalition on 3 June, citing insufficient support for his demands for a stricter migration policy from his coalition partners. 

The four-party coalition, consisting of the PVV, the conservative-liberal VVD, the pro-agrarian BBB and the anti-establishment NSC, was formed in July of last year following the PVV’s surprising landslide victory of the parliamentary election in November 2023.

Despite the migration and asylum portfolio being in the hands of Wilders’ party, Minister Marjolein Faber was criticized for not communicating with members of parliament and for regularly stirring controversy. 

The next parliamentary election will be held in late October. The PVV is currently leading in the polls with 20% of the vote, followed by the opposition Social Democrat/Green voting bloc at 19% and the VVD at 16%. Former coalition members BBB and NSC are projected to crash, as they are polling at 2% and 1%, respectively.

[The Guardian]

2025 NATO summit in The Hague. 

[BD] The topic of increased defense spending dominated the two-day NATO summit in The Hague from 24-25 June after US president Donald Trump demanded members should raise their military expenditures to at least 5% of GDP. 

The alliance’s member countries agreed to reach the 5% mark by 2035, of which 1.5% are to be used for dual-use infrastructure and areas such as cybersecurity. Despite NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte’s efforts to get all members on the same page, Spain harshly criticised the idea, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez asserting that his country would be able to meet the alliance’s security demands without raising the country’s defense spending. 

Being held in the Netherlands for the first time, the summit was marked by the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with some experts even speculating in the run-up that President Trump may cancel his participation due to the tensions in the Middle East. 

[BBC]

Nawrocki’s victory in the Polish presidential election. 

[BD] Independent conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki eked out a narrow win during the 1 June presidential elections in Poland, defeating his opponent Rafał Trzaskowski with 50.89% of the vote. 

Nawrocki, who was supported by the main opposition party Right and Justice (PiS), had been mired in controversy during the electoral campaign due to alleged ties to organized crime and football hooligans. He was also accused of illegally acquiring a social housing apartment. 

The result is seen as a defeat for the ruling Civic Platform (PO) under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had supported Trzaskowski in the election. This is due to the President’s power to veto legislation, which had already tied Tusk’s hands under the previous President Andrzej Duda.

Following the elections, Tusk called a vote of no confidence in the Polish Sejm, which he subsequently survived.

[Deutsche Welle]

Overtourism protests in Barcelona, Lisbon, Venice etc.

[BD] Locals took to the streets in several European cities on 15 June, including tourism hotbeds such as Barcelona and Venice, in order to protest increasing overtourism, which poses significant challenges to these cities’ social makeup and the environment. 

Demonstrators in Barcelona fired water pistols and set off smoke grenades, arguing that over-tourism is leading to an increase in housing prices and pushing people out of their neighbourhoods. The protests were organized by the group “Southern Europe against Overtourism”.

Meanwhile, protests in Venice caused Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to relocate his wedding to outside the city centre, after originally planning to hold the ceremony in the city centre. Protesters cited the increasing “privatization” of the city and the plans’ disregard of local residents as their main reason for opposing the wedding.

[Reuters]

Asia: 

Middle East on Edge after U.S. launches direct attack on Iranian nuclear program

[HN] On June 21, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States, in collaboration with Israel, had conducted an airstrike against three of Iran's most important nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The sites “have been completely and obliterated,” he said while issuing a threat to Iran that it will have to embrace peaceful cooperation with the U.S. or suffer even worse catastrophes. This was the most direct American military action inside Iran in several years and marked a clear departure from previous restraint in military policy.

On Iran’s side, the government of Tehran categorically condemned the assaults as a serious violation of international law and national sovereignty. The Tehran government also requested the United Nations Security Council to convene an emergency session on the issue. Though no specific form of retaliation was known, Iranian leaders stated they would respond proportionally and exercise their right to protect national sovereignty.

Meanwhile, the international community including United Nations, European Union, China, and Russia, condemned this situation vocally and called for tensions to be de-escalated immediately, as well as a resumption of diplomatic negotiations between Iran and America. Most players agreed it would only destabilise the Middle East more with all this military escalation. [TIME] 

South Korea has officially elected a new president, raising pression questions about the nation’s future after the martial law crisis

[HN] After former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed attempt to impose martial law led to his impeachment. A new presidential election was rapidly held to find a new president for South Korea. On June 3, 2025, liberal candidate Lee Jae-Myung won with 49.4% of the vote, defeating conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo, who had 41.15% of the voters. This election marked the highest number of electors since 1997. 

Lee Myung’s victory is seen as a rejection of authoritarianism and a choice to restore democracy in South Korea. However, this new president will immediately face many complex challenges, including repairing a very polarized political climate, quickly stabilising the government amid a sluggish economy, and strained relations with North Korea and America. [TheGuardian] 

Thai Prime Minister under pressure after the leaked phone call to the Prime Minister of Cambodia

[HN] In a leaked phone call on June 15 between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s Hun Sen, Paetongtarn sought a peaceful resolution to the border issue and referred to a Thai military general as someone who “just wants to look cool.” The invitation sparked a public backlash. Paetongtarn was condemned for seriously disrespecting national sovereignty and the armed forces’ reputation, prompting public calls for her resignation just ten months into office.

The withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party, the second-largest member of the ruling coalition, along with emergency meetings held by other coalition parties including the United Thai Nation (UTN), Chart Thai, and the Democrat Party reflects a severe decline in political support for Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s administration. The leaked call has also taken a brutal toll on public trust in Thailand’s present leader. Amid swelling criticism, Paetongtarn has yet to make an official statement. Media reports, however, have highlighted rising concerns over possible protests and an intense public backlash. [GlobeNewsBangkok] 

Contributors: 

BD: Benedikt Stöckl

HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)