Insight: What is happening in Europe and Asia in April 2026?

Asia:

1. China positions on the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East tensions

   SV - China’s position on the Strait of Hormuz has evolved from cautious diplomacy to a more assertive form of “active neutrality”, aimed at safeguarding its critical energy interests while avoiding direct military confrontation. By rejecting the US naval blockade, maintaining oil ties with Iran, and simultaneously calling for ceasefire and free navigation, Beijing seeks to balance strategic partnerships across the region. This dual approach allows China to present itself as a responsible diplomatic actor, while quietly challenging US influence through economic leverage and alternative financial mechanisms, such as yuan-based oil transactions.

   However, China’s limited military projection capabilities constrain its ability to directly contest US naval dominance, reinforcing its reliance on diplomacy and economic statecraft. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly becoming an arena of indirect Sino-American rivalry, where influence is exercised through supply chains, alliances, and financial systems rather than open conflict. This suggests that China’s growing role in the Middle East will remain selective and risk-averse, yet strategically significant for the future balance of power and global energy governance. [Modern Diplomacy, Global Times, English.gov.cn]
   

2. Expanded U.S.–Philippines–Japan–alliance drills near Taiwan and the South China Sea

   SV - The expansion of the Balikatan exercises into a broader multilateral format, featuring active participation from Japan, Canada, and European partners, reflects a transition from bilateral alliances to a more interconnected security network aimed at countering China’s growing assertiveness. By incorporating live-fire drills, advanced missile systems, and operations near both the South China Sea and Taiwan, the exercises move beyond symbolic cooperation to operational readiness for high-intensity contingencies.

   Crucially, the Philippines is positioning itself as a strategic hub in this emerging architecture, leveraging its geographic proximity to Taiwan and contested maritime zones to anchor the U.S.-led deterrence efforts. This suggests a gradual “regionalization” of the Taiwan issue, where a potential crisis would no longer be confined to cross-strait dynamics but involve a broader coalition of actors.

   At the same time, the growing scale and proximity of these drills risk reinforcing China’s perception of encirclement, potentially accelerating militarization and increasing the likelihood of escalation. As a result, the Indo-Pacific security environment is shifting toward a more polarized and alliance-driven order, where deterrence is strengthened but stability becomes more fragile. [Reuters, FDD]
   

3. Japan’s shift toward larger arms exports and regional security posture

   SV - Japan’s decision to lift long-standing restrictions on arms exports signals a fundamental transformation of its postwar security identity, moving beyond an exclusively defensive posture toward a more active role in regional and global security. By enabling the export of advanced systems such as missiles, warships, and fighter jets, Tokyo is not only strengthening its domestic defense industry but also embedding itself more deeply into allied defense supply chains, particularly across the Indo-Pacific.

   This shift reflects both external pressures, such as growing security tensions in East Asia and strains on U.S. defense production, and a strategic recalibration toward burden-sharing within allied frameworks. As partners like the Philippines and European states seek to diversify arms suppliers, Japan is positioning itself as a credible alternative, reinforcing deterrence through industrial and technological cooperation rather than direct military expansion.

   However, the move also carries destabilizing potential. It challenges the credibility of Japan’s long-standing pacifist identity and risks fueling regional mistrust, particularly from China and historically sensitive neighbors. As a result, Japan’s evolving role is likely to accelerate both defense integration among U.S. allies and broader regional militarization, contributing to a more competitive and less predictable security environment in Asia. [Reuters, DW, CGTN]
   

4. Pakistan resumes military strikes in Afghanistan after Eid truce

   SV - Pakistan’s decision to resume military operations immediately after the Eid ceasefire signals that the pause was tactical rather than a step toward de-escalation. By framing its campaign as a targeted effort against militant infrastructure under Taliban-controlled areas, Islamabad is normalizing cross-border strikes as a tool of pressure on Kabul, aiming to compel action against groups it accuses of operating from Afghan territory.

   However, the persistence of mutual accusations and the absence of verification mechanisms suggest a deepening trust deficit that limits prospects for durable conflict management. The scale of recent violence, combined with humanitarian spillovers such as refugee flows and border disruptions, indicates that tensions are no longer contained but risk becoming structurally embedded.

   This dynamic points to a broader pattern of regional fragility, where external calls for restraint, from actors such as Gulf states and China, have limited impact on the ground. As a result, the Pakistan–Afghanistan border is evolving into a chronic flashpoint, with implications for regional security, counterterrorism cooperation, and stability across South and Central Asia. [Reuters, Afghan Studies Center, Arab News]

   
   

5. Myanmar junta frees 4,335 prisoners in New Year & Independence amnesty

   SV - The release of over 4,000 prisoners, including high-profile figures such as former President Win Myint and sentence reductions for Aung San Suu Kyi, projects an image of reconciliation and political flexibility under Min Aung Hlaing’s newly formalized presidency. Framed within traditional New Year and Independence Day practices, the amnesty allows the junta to embed its actions within a narrative of continuity and national unity, while responding to both domestic expectations and international scrutiny.

   However, the structural context undermines the credibility of this move as a meaningful step toward de-escalation. With more than 30,000 individuals detained on political charges since the 2021 coup and ongoing civil conflict across the country, such releases remain selective and limited in scope. Previous amnesties have freed only a small proportion of political prisoners, suggesting that these measures function less as systemic reform and more as controlled pressure valves to manage dissent and external criticism.

   As a result, the amnesty is better understood as part of a broader strategy to stabilize the regime’s position while maintaining core mechanisms of repression. By combining selective leniency with continued political imprisonment and military dominance, the junta seeks to balance coercion with symbolic gestures, reinforcing its authority without fundamentally altering Myanmar’s trajectory of conflict and authoritarian consolidation. [DW, Reuters, Global Post]

Europe:

1. France & EU coordinate social media ban after Macron call

   BE - EU leaders have intensified their efforts to implement a ban on social media for minors, following a video call spearheaded by French President Emmanuel Macron on 16 April. The call was also attended by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as well as German, Greek, Italian and Irish representatives.

   Macron emphasized that a ban would “strengthen both the protection of children and teenagers in the digital space as well as the obligations and responsibilities of major online platforms”. His call for a social media ban for minors comes at a time where European officials are looking for ways to curb the influence of social media companies like Meta or ByteDance, whose unfettered algorithms and harmful content pose a risk to children’s mental health.

   The ban would follow the example of Australia, which became the first country worldwide to ban the use of social media for teenagers under the age of 16. However, proposals for a potential EU ban have struggled with varying frameworks and minimum ages. Macron now seeks to streamline these efforts on the European level. [Reuters, Luxembourg Times, Bloomberg]

2. Ukraine & EU unblock oil flows after Hungary veto lifted

   BE - Oil flows to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have restarted following Budapest’s decision to rescind its veto against a €90 billion loan to Ukraine by the European Union. Ukraine had previously halted oil exports via the pipeline, citing damages inflicted by Russian drones. 

   Hungary’s veto reversal comes following a landslide victory for opposition party Tisza and its leader Peter Magyar during the parliamentary elections on 12 April, putting an end to Viktor Orbán’s 16 years of rule over the country. Magyar has vowed to mend the country’s ties with Brussels, which were previously strained due to numerous rule of law violations and Orbán’s relations with autocratic leaders.

   With the loan, Ukraine is looking to bolster its war chest and replenish its arsenal in its war against Russia. The EU also agreed on its 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes a full ban on maritime services for Russian oil tankers. [AlJazeera, Reuters, Euronews, The Guardian]

 

3. Bulgaria faces policy shift after Radev landslide

   BE - Former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev and his recently founded left-wing populist “Progressive Bulgaria” party achieved a landslide victory during the parliamentary elections on 19 April, securing roughly 44,7% of the vote. Radev, who ran on a pro-Russian platform and has voiced stark criticism towards the EU, called the results “a victory of hope”.

   The previous Bulgarian government under prime minister Rosen Zhelyazkov had collapsed in December last year following mass protests against a budget proposal which would have implemented higher taxes and social security contributions. Subsequent efforts to form a new coalition failed due to ideological rifts between the parties.

   The elections saw Bulgarians go to the polls for the eighth time in the last five years. Many hope that Radev, who is considered a beacon of stability due to his nine-year tenure as Bulgarian president, will put an end to the country’s political instability and rampant corruption. [Reuters, France 24, ECFR]

   
   

4. EU & energy ministers coordinate market response after Iran war

   BE - The EU unveiled its plan to manage energy shocks on 22 April, following an extended period of price volatility and supply shortages due to the Iran war. The toolbox called “AccelerateEU” is slated to help member states manage current pressures and dampen the blow of future shocks to the energy market.

   The toolbox foresees a number of different measures, including reducing the bloc’s dependency on fossil fuels, lowering electricity costs, coordinating gas purchases and loosening oil and fertilizer subsidy rules.  "This must be a wake-up call and a turning point," said EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen at a press conference in Brussels, admitting that “we are looking into some very difficult months and even years” ahead.

   The Iran war and the subsequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz have led oil and gas prices across the EU to spiral, costing approximately €5 million per day, or €24 billion total. The extent of the cost explosion and supply shortage have led some to dub it “the world’s worst energy crisis”. [Reuters, Deutsche Welle, Euronews, WEForum].
   

5. Italy & EU finalise budget amid slowdown BE - Italy has called on the EU to consider easing its budget deficit rules in the wake of the ongoing energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. The country currently risks missing its 2,8% deficit target of gross domestic product due to spiraling energy costs.

   “It is clear that, unless the situation changes, discussions at the European level will ⁠be inevitable,” Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stated. Italy is currently under an EU infringement procedure due to its excessive budget deficit. 

   Between 2020 and 2023, the EU had suspended its budget rules due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Rome is now considering cutting its economic growth predictions from 0,7% to 0,5 or 0,6% in the current year, as well as from 0,8% to 0,7% for next year. [Reuters, Reuters] Contributors:

   SV: Silva Armaci

   BE: Benedikt Stöckl