Insight: What is happening in Europe and Asia in October 2025?

The month of October has seen a surge of significant political and humanitarian developments across Asia and Europe, highlighting both progress and persistent instability. In Asia, a rare breakthrough emerged as Pakistan and Afghanistan struck an immediate ceasefire in Doha, signaling tentative steps toward restoring regional peace. Meanwhile, Japan marked a historic milestone with the election of its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, while China’s fourth plenum outlined an ambitious economic vision centered on AI and biotechnology. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased after President Trump withdrew his plan for a 100% tariff hike, and Cambodia secured a 19% tariff deal with Washington that safeguarded key industries. Across the region, the WHO South-East Asia session in Colombo concluded with bold resolutions to strengthen public health resilience.

In Europe, the EU’s unveiling of a new 'Pact for the Mediterranean' underscored its intent to recalibrate relations with its southern neighbours amid intensifying geopolitical competition. Moldova’s ruling pro-European PAS party maintained its parliamentary majority, consolidating the country’s EU trajectory despite Russian interference allegations. Norway announced a substantial defence budget increase for 2026, aligning with NATO’s new spending targets, while Brussels debated the legality of seizing frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. At the same time, European officials pressed Israel to ease restrictions on aid delivery to Gaza, reflecting mounting humanitarian and diplomatic strain.

Asia:

Pakistan & Afghanistan strike immediate ceasefire after Doha talks

HN - Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire following talks on October 19 in Doha, Qatar. The agreement came just days after Pakistan launched airstrikes in Afghanistan, killing at least 10 civilians and collapsing the previous ceasefire. According to Qatar’s foreign ministry, both sides agreed to end the fighting and establish a mechanism to strengthen long-term peace and stability between the two countries. Moreover, the two sides confirmed that they will meet again in Istanbul on October 25 to discuss upcoming steps.

However, regional analysts warned that the risk of renewed conflict remains high. Although Pakistan’s strong military power discourages the Taliban government from direct confrontation, mutual distrust and complex security concerns could undermine the agreement. However, the process in Doha showed the first positive sign in efforts to rebuild diplomatic communication and minimise conflicts between the two countries.  [MoFA Qatar, CNA]

Cambodia secures 19% tariff deal with U.S., averting major trade hit

HN - Cambodia’s Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol confirmed that the United States' (US) decision to impose a 19% tariff on Cambodian exports has actually helped prevent the country’s economy from collapsing. In particular, this tariff allows Cambodia to maintain its competitiveness with other countries in the region and keep factory operations running, thereby protecting the majority of jobs in the country. 

Export sectors such as textiles and footwear have benefited the most from this new tariff preference. Approximately 1 million workers – most of them women – now have their jobs safeguarded, contributing to a large trade surplus with the US in this industry. [The White House, Reuters] 

Israel continues deadly truce breaches in Gaza as U.S. scrambles to salvage deal

HN - Israel has continued its airstrikes and gunfire operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire agreement implemented on October 10. According to Gaza authorities, at least 97 to 100 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military, with the deadliest incident on Sunday leaving 42 people dead, including children. Israel justified the attacks by claiming Hamas had killed two Israeli soldiers in Rafah, though Hamas has denied the allegation. 

A key factor behind the renewed clashes is disagreement over the so-called “yellow line” — a border demarcation marking where Israeli forces withdrew but maintained positions under the previous ceasefire, leading to several Palestinian deaths as civilians accidentally crossed the line while returning to their homes.

Amid escalating casualties on both sides, the US dispatched two special envoys to Israel on Monday to reinforce the ceasefire efforts. While Israel continues to face accusations of blocking humanitarian aid into Gaza, the next phase of the agreement aims to further reduce hostilities, including the withdrawal of additional Israeli troops and international coordination over Gaza’s future governance.

 [Al Jazeera]  

China’s fourth plenum focuses on economic strategy and leadership reorganisation 

HN - At the end of October, China convened its fourth plenum in Beijing, attended by over 300 senior Communist Party delegates.

The main agenda of the meeting was to outline a five-year economic development plan (2026-2030), with a focus on artificial intelligence, quantum computing, new energy, and biotechnology. The plenum also addressed the appointment of new personnel to fill positions left vacant following the anti-corruption campaign. According to the announcement, the finalised plan is expected to be approved by the National People’s Congress in March 2026. [CNN] 

Trump withdraws plan for 100% tariffs on China ahead of Xi meeting

HN - US President Donald Trump has backed down from his threat to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods after several rounds of negotiations between the two countries. The threat was originally made in response to China’s strict controls on rare earth minerals announced on October 9. Following two days of meetings with Chinese officials, however, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the threat had been dropped to avoid escalating the conflict between the two sides. 

According to the preliminary agreement, the US expects China to resume soybean purchases to address concerns of American farmers, following Beijing’s boycott since May. Moreover, China has agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth materials for a year. The trade agreements between the two sides will continue to be discussed during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in South Korea. [IDN Financials]  

WHO South-East Asia session ends with bold resolutions to accelerate ‘Health for All’

HN - On October 15, 2025, the WHO South-East Asia Session in Sri Lanka announced several key decisions. Firstly, the session approved the Colombo Declaration on “Healthy Ageing through Strengthened Primary Health Care” to address the rise of old populations in the region by 2050. Secondly, the session also approved the resolution on combating Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR).

Moreover, the meeting decided to expand the SEAHEARTS initiative and to update the South-East Asia Regional Health Emergency Fund (SEARHEF 2.0) to support cardiovascular disease-related issues. As a side event, the WHO also launched the Regional Youth Council to strengthen youth engagement in health. [WHO]

Japan elects its first female Prime Minister

HN - On October 21, 2025, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female Prime Minister. Takaichi received 237 votes in the Lower House and 125 votes in the second round of voting in the Upper House.

After being selected, Takaichi formed a Cabinet to maintain party unity and balance the factions. She first appointed former Defence Minister Minoru Kihara as Chief Cabinet Secretary and Satsuki Katayama as Finance Minister. The Cabinet also included her former rivals in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, such as Shinjiro Koizumi (Defence Minister) and Toshimitsu Motegi (Foreign Minister). Moreover, Takaichi took charge of delivering an emergency economic package and preparing policy speeches for the National Diet, as well as representing Japan at the upcoming ASEAN meetings in Malaysia, talks with President Trump, and the APEC Summit in South Korea. [JapanTimes]

Europe:

Pact for the Mediterranean: EU to remodel relationship with its Southern neighbourhood. 

BD - The European Union (EU) has introduced a new “Pact for the Mediterranean” on October 16 to strengthen its ties with ten Mediterranean countries — including Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Tunisia, and Syria — as the region grows increasingly strategic for migration and energy.

The pact focuses on developing joint projects in key areas such as trade integration, migration management, and critical raw material supply chains. According to EU High Commissioner Kaja Kallas, the initiative seeks to build an “equal partnership” with Mediterranean states and reaffirm the EU’s role in the region amid rising influence from China and Russia.  [European Commission, Euronews]

Moldova: Pro-European PAS party maintains absolute majority in election win. 

BD - The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won the fiercely contested parliamentary elections on September 28 with 50.2% of the vote, retaining 55 seats in parliament. The main pro-Russian opposition force, the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) – a coalition of Socialists, Communists, and two smaller parties –  only managed to garner the trust of roughly 24% of the electorate. 

Moldovan President Maia Sandu had previously dubbed the elections “the last battle” for the country's EU accession. She accused Russia of interfering extensively in the electoral process through vote-buying schemes, funded protests, and targeted social media campaigns. [BBC]

Norway plans a bigger defence budget in 2026 amid growing security concerns. 

BD - On October 20, the Norwegian minority government presented its planned budget for 2026, which foresees a rise in defence spending by NOK 4,2 billion to NOK 180 billion in total - including financial support to Ukraine. The uptick follows the long-term defence plan the Norwegian parliament agreed upon in summer of last year, according to which NOK 611 billion is to be invested into the country's military over the next 12 years.

"This is a good starting point for a rapid strengthening of the defense capabilities. With this budget, we are on track to reach the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s new target of spending 3.5% of the gross domestic product on defence purposes," Norwegian Minister of Defence, Tore O. Sandvik (Labour), stated. The increased budget will be used to improve personnel development and material management in the Armed Forces and to ensure that the current operational framework can be maintained. [Norway Government, High North News]

Brussels eyes frozen Russian assets to fund multi-billion-Euro loan for Ukraine. 

BD - After previously seizing €140 billion in Russian assets, the EU executive branch now aims to extract an additional €25 billion from private bank accounts in order to continue funding Ukraine's war effort. The €25 billion, which is scattered throughout bank accounts in various EU countries, is to be issued to Ukraine in the form of loans.

However, certain EU countries as well as legal experts have voiced their concerns, pointing towards the unclear legal framework surrounding the unilateral seizure of frozen assets. Belgium, where the bulk of Russian frozen assets are located, has repeatedly demanded guarantees from the EU in order to prevent legal action being taken against it. [European Commission, Politico]

European Commission urges Israel to lift aid-delivery restrictions to Gaza. 

BD - Despite agreeing to allow the daily passage of 600 aid delivery trucks under the peace deal brokered by U.S. President Trump, Israel has so far limited aid supplies to Gaza to about half the promised amount, citing the slow return of the bodies of deceased hostages as a breach of the ceasefire agreement. 

EU officials have criticised complex bureaucratic criteria that keep sufficient amounts of aid from reaching Gaza, demanding that Israel grant the EU Commission staff access to the area and to open all crossing points to the land strip. [European Commission, Euronews]

Contributors:

HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)

BD: Benedikt Stöckl