Insight: What is happening in Europe and Asia in December 2025?

The month of December saw growing pressures throughout Asia and Europe highlighted by intensifying security measures, climate-driven crises, and shifting geopolitical alignments across the two regions. With devastating storms displacing millions in South and Southeast Asia to renewed great-power realignment over Taiwan, Gaza, and the South China Sea – Asia’s vulnerabilities became exposed amid mounting strategic uncertainty. In the meantime, Europe has struggled with the pressures of war and sanctions, accelerating defence integration, deepening economic realignments with China, and domestic unrest during public uprisings. Tied together, the developments in these regions for December 2025 marked less with resolution than by recalibration where states and communities alike are placed in a position where adapting to compounding risks became increasingly necessary in a shifting global order.

Asia:

Deadly storms sweep South and Southeast Asia, leaving over 1,600 dead

IG - Commencing in mid-November, a series of deadly storms has caused widespread destruction across the South and Southeast Asia region, with a death toll of over 1,600.

Affecting Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, this string of overlapping storms has forced over a million people into shelters, with over four million children encountering disruption in their education.

In a speech, UNICEF Deputy Spokesperson Ricardo Pires called for a prompt response as children now sit at the "frontline" of the extreme weather that is becoming more frequent, intense and less predictable amid the ongoing climate crisis. (United Nations) 

Putin meets Indonesia's Prabowo to discuss military and energy ties

IG - On December 10, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto at the Kremlin. The two discussed increasing military ties, Russia’s willingness to assist Indonesia in nuclear energy development, and a slight decrease in the annual figures for Russian wheat imports into Indonesia.

This was the Russian head of state’s second meeting with Indonesia as he courts the world’s fourth most populous country to build stronger ties with the Global South amid the sanctions imposed by the West on the country following the war in Ukraine. (Reuters)

Palestinians at flood risk after Storm Byron makes landfall in Gaza

IG - At least 14 have been killed and over 53,000 displacement tents were flooded in a storm that hit the already struggling population in Gaza following a typhoon landfall on December 12.

Internationally named ‘Byron,’ the typhoon caused buildings to collapse in several areas with 14 deaths recorded after 24 hours. This comes after two years of near-constant assault from Israeli forces, leaving residents of Gaza overwhelmingly vulnerable to the impacts and aftermath of extreme weather events. (IOM, Al Jazeera and WAFA)

US Congress revises bill allocating Taiwan security funding

IG - United States (US) President Donald Trump signed the latest version of the US National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) into law on December 18, which will provide up to US$1 billion in spending on Taiwan-related security cooperation in the 2026 fiscal budget. 

The final version of the law was slightly more restrained than the initial proposals. Phrasing was removed which would have enabled Taiwan to participate in Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC), a huge US-led military exercise held around the Hawaiian Islands with around 30 participating countries.

Nonetheless, the act facilitates deepening of military cooperation between Taiwan and the US in 2026, with provisions for the deployment of American Coast Guard training teams, expansion of medical equipment resources, and improvement of supply capacities from the US to Taiwan. (US Congress, Georgia Rick W. Allen House, Focus Taiwan)

Trump unveils strategy to prevent China-Taiwan South China Sea conflict

IG - The White House released its National Security Strategy document on December 5, setting out Donald Trump’s plan to evade conflict with China due to disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea. 

In this document, which tackles highly sensitive diplomatic issues, the Trump administration laid out plans to build military power amongst the U.S. and its allies as a route to avoid clashes. This updated strategy takes a significantly stronger stance than Trump took during his first term as President, promising to build military capability sufficient to stop “aggression anywhere”. 

The US currently has no diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but the former has been the latter's most important international ally and has been required by its law to provide Taiwan with the avenue to defend itself. (The White House, Reuters)

Europe:

Russia strengthens financial ties to China with first Renminbi bond

MC - In December, Russia issued its first national bond denominated in Chinese Renminbi, which marks an important step for it in the face of rising fiscal deficits and to move away from Western financial systems as sanctions continue. Tranches with maturities of up to seven years were part of the domestic offer on the Moscow Exchange, which drew Renminbi liquidity from energy exporters doing business with China, where bilateral volumes reached record highs.

By backing China’s efforts to internationalise the Renminbi and giving the Kremlin additional financial sources, this deepens Moscow’s economic ties with Beijing, though yields are still high because of the two countries' strengthened "no limits" cooperation and changing global financial dynamics and the geopolitical uncertainties (Financial Times, Bloomberg).

Parliament greenlights first-ever European defence industry programme

MC - In late November, the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), which has a €1.5 billion budget for 2025–2027, was formally authorised by the European Parliament. It is the EU’s first effort specifically designed to improve its defence technology and industry base. 

The EDIP allocates subsidies to boost Ukraine’s defence industry and encourages cooperative procurement, industrial ramp-up, and a “buy European” strategy that caps non-EU components at 35%. It seeks to improve supply chain resilience, strategic autonomy, and preparedness in the face of increased security risks, building on earlier initiatives, such as the EU Defence Industry Reinforcement Through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP). 

This regulation is considered a major step towards greater defence cooperation among EU member states by providing mechanisms for collaborative projects and Value Added Tax (VAT) exemption. (European Parliament)

European Commission Maintains 30 December 2025 Application Date for EU Deforestation Regulation

MC - The European Commission has confirmed that the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will be effective December 30 2025, for large and medium-sized businesses, which requires proof that imported commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, soy, and wood are free from deforestation. 

Despite ongoing debates and calls for further delays from industries and trading partners, the schedule to meet climate commitments was kept in place, with added simplifications including a six-month grace period prior to full enforcement and lower obligations for small companies. (European Parliament, Latham & Watkins)

Bulgarian government resigns after mass anti-corruption protests

MC - The Bulgarian government resigns. Rosen Zhelyazkov, Bulgaria’s prime minister, has tendered his government's resignation following weeks of mass street protests amid its failure to tackle corruption and its economic policies. 

In a speech, Zhelyazkov said his government's goal is to be at the level that its citizenry expects, where power stems from the voices of the people.

"People of all ages, ethnic backgrounds and religions have spoken out in favour of the resignation. This civic energy must be supported and encouraged," he asserted. (ABC, Reuters, The Guardian)

Germany accuses Russia of air traffic control cyber-attack

Germany has blamed Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) for a sophisticated cyberattack on its air traffic control infrastructure. 

Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador, citing the attack particularly conducted by the APT28 (Fancy Bear) hacking group as part of escalating hybrid warfare, including alleged disinformation campaigns aimed at interfering in Germany’s elections in February 2025. 

Russia has "categorically rejected" Germany's claims and argued that the accusations are "baseless, unfounded and absurd."

Last year, Romania and the United Kingdom also accused the Putin-led nation of allegedly intervening in their respective domestic affairs which target organisations that deliver foreign assistance to Ukraine and presidential elections. (BBC, Euronews)

Contributors:

IG: Imogen Parsley

MC: Michelle Tse