What is happening in Europe and Asia in May 2025?

May 2025 has seen numerous new developments across Europe and Asia, the most significant of which was the sudden escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan and the subsequent ceasefire agreed between the two. Above all else, this friction between two nuclear states only furthers the sense of global insecurity and a return to geopolitical conflict evidenced in recent years in Ukraine, Gaza, Armenia, and Taiwan. Similarly, we monitor election results in Poland, Romania, and Singapore and their implications both at home and abroad. 

May has also seen pertinent developments in multilateral coordination. We note the new agreement on security and economic issues between the United Kingdom and the European Union and its effect on bilateral relations since Brexit, as well as the European Political Community Summit held this month in Albania as Europe develops its strategy for assisting Ukraine with reduced support from Washington. We also note the finalisation of China-ASEAN trade negotiations and how it differs from previous iterations to align with rising trade challenges across the continent. We further monitor the region’s concerns and evolving responses to the Myanmar conflict, recent spikes in COVID-19 infections, and the political fallout from the new Bangladeshi government's banning of the former ruling party, the Awami League.

Europe: 

Nicuşor Dan wins the Romanian presidential election.

[BD] Former Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan won the second round of Romania’s tumultuous presidential elections as an independent candidate on 18 May, gaining 53.6% of the vote against far right candidate George Simion. The elections had been mired in controversy after the results of the first round last December were annulled due to allegations of wide scale Russian interference. 

Romania’s support for Ukraine as well as its membership in the EU and NATO were among the most prominent topics during the campaign. Simion, who had voiced his support for American president Donald Trump and intended to halt aid for Ukraine, had won a relative majority in the rescheduled first round on 4 May, gaining the support of roughly 41% of voters, while runner-up Dan clocked in at approximately 21%. 

Despite initially conceding the election and congratulating his opponent, Simion later recanted his statements and called for the election results to be annulled. However, his plea was later rejected by Romania’s top court. 

[Politico]

Close result in second round of Polish presidential election expected after tight first round. 

[BD] Poland is expecting a hotly contested second round of its presidential elections after no candidate was able to attain an absolute majority during the first round on 18 May. 

The run-off election on 1 June will see Rafał Trzaskowski, a member of prime minister Donald Tusk’s ruling party Civic Coalition who secured 31.36% of votes in the first round, square off against conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, who came in second with 29.54%. 

The Polish president’s veto powers over legislation has been one of the main causes for the current centre-left government’s inability to implement its election promises, as incumbent President Andrzej Duda is a member of main opposition party Law and Justice. While a win for Trzaskowski could break the deadlock, a Nawrocki victory would probably further complicate things for Tusk’s government. 

[BBC]

European Political Community Summit in Albania.

[BD] The 6th summit of the European Political Community (EPC) took place in the Albanian capital Tirana on 16 May, with Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, economic competitiveness and youth mobility being among the dominant topics. 

European heads of state and government leaders from 47 countries gathered in Tirana, with the EU being represented by Council president Antonio Costa, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Parliament president Roberta Metsola. 

The EPC was called into life by French president Emmanuel Macron in 2022 as a platform for both EU and non-EU countries to politically coordinate and discuss issues of common interest. 

[EU Council]

UK-EU strike deal on fisheries and security.

[BD] The EU and the United Kingdom agreed on a new defense and security pact on 19 May, as the two sides aim to revamp their bilateral relations that had been soured by Brexit. 

The deal should pave the way for Britain to participate in the EU’s €150 billion SAFE project, a joint EU procurement program aiming to rebuild the continent’s military capabilities. However, the UK’s participation hinges on financial contributions to the program. The two sides also agreed to further improve ties in matters concerning energy, agrifood, climate, migration and policing.

The agreement also saw an extension of fishing rights for European vessels in British waters until 2038, a decision that garnered stark criticism in the UK. Opposition parties accused Starmer of “selling out” British fishers and “becoming a rule-taker from Brussels again”.

[Politico]

Asia: 

India-Pakistan diplomatic conflict may escalate in the future despite the signed ceasefire agreement.

[HN] The crisis between India and Pakistan erupted intensely after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 Indian tourists on April 22, 2025. In retaliation, India launched “Operation Sindoor”, targeting at least nine targets in Pakistan, with accusations that the country supported terrorist groups that had previously attacked India. Pakistan denied the allegations and fought back with “Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos (Wall of Lead),” claiming to have shot down 5 Indian Rafale fighter jets. Both sides suspended bilateral agreements, expelled each other's diplomatic personnel, and closed borders.

This escalating conflict has weakened the deterrence structure that has maintained stability between the two countries since their 1998 nuclear tests. Although a ceasefire was established on May 10 with US mediation, the crisis reveals military changes and readiness to act below the nuclear threshold with plausible deniability and calculated force. Both sides demonstrated a willingness to escalate, raising questions about conflict control capabilities and South Asian regional stability in the future. [The Diplomat] 

The interim government of Bangladesh dismissed all activities of the Awami League, which is facing a deep political crisis in the country.

[HN] On May 11 2025, Bangladesh’s interim government officially banned all activities of the Awami League – former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s long-governing party – under the Anti-Terrorism Act. This is as the country grapples with acute political instability in the wake of widespread protests in 2024 that left many dead. The interim government blamed the party for being involved in violence, and it decided to prosecute the entire organization under the International Crimes Tribunals Act (ICT Act). In the meantime, the government amended the law to allow for the prosecution of whole political parties – a measure never before taken in Bangladesh's political history.

The Awami League dismissed all charges and condemned the interim government’s actions as illegal. The party declared that this was an attempt to remove political opponents and ignore democratic conventions. Student groups – the main drivers of the last anti-government protests – and opposition political parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), however, welcomed this step as an attempt to end the culture of impunity and bring the government to justice.

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been exiled to India since her removal in August 2024. The caretaker government, led by the Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, has pledged to implement far-reaching reforms to revive public trust in the state and the political process. However, no timeline has been announced for holding general elections. As a result, many citizens and international organizations have raised questions about the current government's long-term legitimacy and Bangladesh’s political future. [Aljazeera]

Singapore's People’s Action Party received a landslide victory from voters in the prime ministerial election.

[HN] On May 3, 2025, Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) swept to a decisive victory, continuing its record of uninterrupted rule to 66 years. It was the first election under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who took over from Lee Hsien Loong in 2024. According to official tallies, PAP won 87 of the 97 seats in Parliament, while the opposition Workers’ Party held onto the remaining 10 seats. PAP's vote share increased to 65.6% from its historical low of 61% in the 2020 election. This is proof of voters’ strong and lasting support for Wong's vision and policies.

Despite ongoing concerns about the high cost of living and income inequality, voters seemed to value the stability and experience of the PAP government during uncertain times in the global economy. The Workers’ Party failed to add seats but solidified their vote share in specific constituencies, showing potential for future growth. Internationally, the event was well-received. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated and emphasized the strong bilateral relationship between the two countries. [APNews] 

CAFTA 3.0: A New Step in China–ASEAN Economic Integration.

[HN] China and ASEAN officially wrapped up negotiations on May 21, 2025, for version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA). The negotiation started in November 2022 and experienced nine rounds over nearly two years with close coordination between economic and trade ministers of member countries. CAFTA 3.0 is expected to promote greater in-depth economic cooperation, especially in new areas like the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. The agreement also seeks to promote China and ASEAN roles as each other's biggest trading and investment partners and send a strong signal supporting free trade and open cooperation.

Unlike previous versions, CAFTA 3.0 includes nine additional chapters, encompassing cooperation on the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. This not only widens regional economic integration but also helps to foster a China-ASEAN community of shared development.  China's Ministry of Commerce says this upgraded agreement will create a gigantic market and help bring prosperity and sustainable development to both sides. While many economic and trade problems challenge the world economy,  signing  CAFTA 3.0 negotiations is considered a big step toward increasing regional cooperation and protecting the multilateral trading system. [Globaltimes]

ASEAN leaders call for Myanmar's ceasefire and express concerns over bilateral tax deals.

[HN] During the 46th ASEAN Summit on May 27, 2025, regional leaders together called for the extension of the truce in Myanmar on a national scale. They asserted that this is imperative in establishing humanitarian access and providing space for inclusive political dialogue to achieve durable solutions to the prevailing crisis. This statement reflects the ASEAN’s collective position in pursuing peace and internal stability within Myanmar.

The chiefs also expressed concerns that ASEAN members’ bilateral tax treaties with foreign partners, such as the Philippines-US agreement, need to be pursued openly and not at the expense of the overall interests of the bloc. This is an effort to remain together in the bloc as ASEAN countries diversify their trade ties with the outside world. [TheStar] 

Asian countries risk COVID-19 outbreaks following a rapid rise in infections.

[HN] A new wave of COVID-19 is unfolding in Southeast Asian countries, led by Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Thailand. The main reason is the spread of the JN.1 variant. In Hong Kong, the respiratory sample positivity rate reached a one-year peak, with 31 severe cases reported in the week to May 3 - the highest in 12 months. In Singapore, infections between the week of May 3 increased by 28%, reaching 14,200 cases and hospitalizations by  30%. In Thailand, the number of instances for  May 17 doubled to 33,030 cases, mainly among those aged 30-39 years. Health authorities recommend that individuals, especially high-risk populations, get booster shots to reduce infection risk.

Although the rise in cases is not as alarming as in previous outbreaks, experts warn that the rapid rate of JN. 1 variant transmission could overwhelm health systems unless precautions are taken promptly. Booster vaccination, wearing masks, and lessening in mass group gatherings are promoted to control the virus spread. Vigilance and adherence to precautions are required to protect public health as the pandemic continues to pose potential dangers. [NDTVWorld] 

Contributors: 

BD: Benedikt Stöckl

HN: Kim Khánh Hà (Hanna)